A question about a study question’s use of そうだ

Japanese
#1

Can someone check me on this? One of the example sentences for ふん (JLPT N1) | Bunpro is

「刑事１：「彼は殺人に関与していないそうです。」刑事２：「____、本当にそうなのかな。」」

The English translation provided for the first sentence in this example is (with my emphasis):

彼は殺人に関与していないそうです。
It seems he is not involved in the murder.

However, according to そう (JLPT N4) | Bunpro, the grammar point that covers seeming, you would write that like this:

彼は殺人に関与していなさそうです。

As written, the sentence should mean “I heard that he is not involved int he murder”, no?

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#2

I think you’re right.

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#3

@semanticman

Oh boy. Haha. So I actually just watched someone irl kinda have a breakdown over the そうです family of expressions. They are quite complicated and frankly, I’ll give it my best shot but best case scenario someone from Bunpro finds this thread.

The first thing is context. For the grammar point you referred to that you believe should it should be correct to, has a very specific caveat:

This そう is utilized exclusively to make predictions/guesses about something based on visual information. It is relatively low confidence, so should not be used for things that are obvious.

You can’t make a correction into this new grammar point unless you are sure that the policeman is making a statement based on visual information and he’s doing so with low confidence. The issue with そうです and translating it into English is that when you use it, there’s the implication that you, the speak did some thinking/opinion forming on the statement that you’re about to make. It isn’t just parroting what you heard. This nuance is emphasized more in the grammar point:

Appearance: 様態() - Highlighting the way that things ‘appear’, or ‘seem’.

Furthermore, there’s also a vocab word for the expression そうです which highlights the use of the expression not as “I heard” but rather “it seems this way.” This is interesting because it’s sort of like Bunpro is trying to emphasize both usages by translating the grammar point consistently as “I heard” but providing a standalone vocab for “my impression is…”

So, there’s my attempt. And please, if someone sees mistake please correct me. Hopefully I didn’t misunderstand your question or mix things up! I have an inkling I made an error somewhere (all of these look so similar), but hopefully this provides some guidance.

#4

I think you are right, the sentence as written (していないそうです) would imply that this is 伝聞 (hearsay), not 様態 (visual appearance).

It might be interesting to consider which situation the detectives are in.

If the detectives are looking at the suspect and 刑事１says “look at this wimp, no way he could’ve killed someone”, then 様態 and なさそう would be appropriate.

What if 刑事１ has just relayed some new information e.g. from a different department, or summarized what’s know up to this point, and is putting forward an opinion based on that. I don’t think 様態 would be possible, since it’s not a visual clue. But English “it seems” could still describe this situation.
I have a feeling that 伝聞 is applicable here, even though it’s not literally “somebody told me he is not involved”. For an example of linking the idea of judgement calls to hearsay, there is this excerpt from a grammar book:

その事実を聞いたことがある（伝聞）という話し手の考えを伝えています。コトに対する判断になるわけですから、対事的ムードになります。

But it also goes above my head a little bit, so a grain of salt is advised.

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