How high will my reviews get?

[madikpulham]

Helloooo 〜
So far I’m only at 30/day but none of my items are very high up in the SRS yet! (Bunpro newbie for the most part.)
Question- if I only do 5 lessons a day, I’ve estimated I’ll end up with a max of 120-150 reviews a day when they start to reach the last level. Does that sound right? I have way too many learning services to do more than that atm (I’m planning to buy the lifetime membership eventually and up the vocab amount when I finish WK. This pace is perfect for my 5yr plan 🥸 )
If they’ll be more than that, should I do less? I’m ok if on the odd day I have 200 due to a bout of failing some reviews.

[KurokawaMasumi]

For the sake of simplicity let’s say you do your learning in the morning and have therefore time to go through the first two SRS intervals (Beginner I (4h) & Beginner II (8h)).

The third SRS interval (Beginner III (24h)) carries the reviews over to tomorrow.

At N lessons a day, day 1 will have 3N reviews. Day 2 will have 3N + N = 4N reviews.

It really just stacks so you can just add N per additional SRS level…

Highest SRS Stage	Time Passed Since Start	Reviews for N Lessons/Day
Beginner I + II	1 Day	3N
Beginner III	2 Days	4N
Adept I	4 Days	5N
Adept II	8 Days	6N
Adept III	16 Days	7N
Seasoned I	4 Weeks	8N
Seasoned II	8 Weeks	9N
Seasoned III	16 Weeks	10N
Expert I	8 Months	11N
Expert II + Master	14 Months	12N

This is assuming you have a 100% recall rate.
In that case at 5 lessons a day your reviews should never exceed 60 per day.

Now if we look at the SRS intervals for Ghosts, we get 4 / 12 / 24/ 48 hours.
Let’s say that corresponds to days 1, 2, 3, 5.
Or an addition of M * 4 reviews per day where M = N * (1 - recall rate).

Let’s be optimistic and say your recall (accuracy) rate is a little higher than the Bunpro average at 80%.

Taking your 60 reviews per day you get with 5 lessons per day, we get M = 60 * (1 - 0.8) = 12 additional reviews due to ghosts, bringing you up to 72 reviews per day.

[madikpulham]

Thanks for all that work! Sounds like I’ll have a bit of breathing room then. I’ll leave it here for now and up the ante when I switch to Bunpro for vocab reinforcement/ new when I get to N3+. (Primarily learning grammar through immersion(-ish) but Bunpro has been good for practicing output.)

[KurokawaMasumi]

Actually while I’m at it let’s do something fun and look at how many reviews you’ll have for how fast you wanna get through all of BunPro’s JLPT content.

JLPT	Nb Entries (Per Level)	(Cummulative)
N5	1’227	1’227
N4	1’278	2’505
N3	2’219	4’724
N2	2’215	6’939
N1	3’158	10’097

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Here’s how much time it will take at 5 lessons a day.

JLPT	Time Spent (Per Level)	(Cummulative)
N5	246 Days	~8 Months
N4	256 Days	~17 months
N3	444 Days	~32 Months
N2	443 Days	~4 Years
N1	632 Days	~5.5 Years

So let’s round that up to 6 years to get through all JLPT content here, to account for days off or other such factors.
Not too bad for just 72 reviews a day.

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But let’s say you want to speedrun N1 in 1 year. That’s 365 days.
10’097 / 365 ≈ 28 lessons a day.

Here’s the breakdown per level:

JLPT	Time Spent (Per Level)	(Cummulative)
N5	44 Days	~1.5 Months
N4	46 Days	~3 months
N3	80 Days	~5.5 Months
N2	80 Days	~8 Months
N1	113Days	1 Year

Let’s say due to the high number of lessons your accuracy tanks under the BunPro average to 70%.

Since The last SRS level is reachable only after 14 months, we take 11N instead of 12N, putting our max number of reviews at 100% recall at 308 reviews per day.

To that we add ghosts with 308 * (1 - 0.7) ≈ 93. Putting our total expected number of reviews per day at 401 reviews per day.

So basically if you can handle consistently doing 400 reviews a day, you can get through all of BunPro’s JLPT content in a year.

[madikpulham]

Oooo interesting stats!

[rdennison7]

I really should start a Bunpro speedrun thread one of these days.

[maanderse]

This is actually really helpful! Thank you!